ʻO Friedman Industries (NYSE: FRD) he mea hoʻoheheʻe wela wela. Kūʻai ka hui i nā coils mai nā mea hana nui a hana iā lākou no ke kūʻai hou aku e hoʻopau i nā mea kūʻai aku a i ʻole nā ​​​​mea kūʻai aku.
Ua mālama ka ʻoihana i ka noʻonoʻo kālā a me ka hana ʻana i ʻole e hoʻopilikia nui ʻia e ka pōʻai iho o ka ʻoihana.
Ua hoʻopili mauʻia nā papa helu o nā FRD me nā kumukūʻai kila, no ka mea,ʻo nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe o ke kila heʻoi aku ka nui o ka waiwai a me ka hoʻonuiʻana i ka noi no nā huahana FRD.
ʻO ka ʻokoʻa i kēia manawa ua loli paha ke ʻano o ka hoʻokele waiwai, e hōʻike ana ua ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai kūʻai ma mua o nā makahiki i hala aku nei.
Hiki i kēia mau hoʻololi ke manaʻo e hiki iā FRD ke loaʻa hou aku i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana ma mua o ka wā i hala, a no laila, e hōʻoiaʻiʻo i kāna kumukūʻai o kēia manawa.
'Ōlelo Aʻo: Inā ʻaʻole i haʻi ʻia, loaʻa nā ʻike a pau mai ka FRD's SEC filings. Hoʻopau ka makahiki kālā o FRD i Malaki 31, no laila ma kāna hōʻike 10-K, pili ka makahiki kālā i kēia manawa i ka makahiki hana i hala, a ma kāna hōʻike 10-Q, pili ka makahiki hōʻike i kēia manawa i ka makahiki hana o kēia manawa.
ʻAʻole hiki i kēlā me kēia loiloi o kahi hui e kālele ana i nā huahana cyclical a i ʻole nā ​​​​huahana pili e hiki ke hoʻokaʻawale i ka pōʻaiapili waiwai kahi e hana ai ka ʻoihana.
Kūleʻa mākou i ka manawa mai Iune 2009 a Malaki 2020. E like me kā mākou ʻike, ʻo ka manawa, ʻoiai ʻaʻole homogenous, ua hōʻailona ʻia e ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kūʻai, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā kumukūʻai ikehu, nā haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa, a me nā kulekele hoʻonui kālā a me ka hoʻohui ʻana o ke kālepa honua.
Hōʻike ka pakuhi ma lalo nei i ke kumu kūʻai o HRC1, ka ʻaelike kūloko o ka home hot rolled coil futures i hoʻolako nui ʻia e FRD. E like me kā mākou e ʻike ai, ʻo ka manawa a mākou i hoʻoholo ai e nānā i nā kumukūʻai uhi ʻia mai $375 a i $900 no ka ton.
ʻO FRD kahi mea hana i lalo, ʻo ia hoʻi he mea hana kokoke i ka mea kūʻai hope o ka huahana kila. Kūʻai ʻo FRD i nā wili wela i loko o ka nui mai nā wili nui, a laila ʻoki ʻia, hana ʻia a kūʻai hou ʻia e like me ka hoʻopau ʻana i nā mea kūʻai aku a i ʻole nā ​​​​mea kūʻai aku.
ʻEkolu mau hale hana i kēia manawa ma Decatur, Alabama;Lone Star, Texas;a me Hickman, Arkansas. Ua hoʻolaʻa ʻia nā mea kanu ʻo Alabama a me Arkansas i ka ʻoki ʻana i ka coil, aʻo ka mea kanu Texas i hoʻolaʻa ʻia i ka hana ʻana i nā coils i mau paipu.
ʻO kahi hulina Google Maps maʻalahi no kēlā me kēia hale i hōʻike ʻia aia nā hale hana ʻekolu ma kahi kokoke i nā hale hana nui o nā ʻoihana kaulana ma ka ʻoihana.
He mea koʻikoʻi ka wahi i ke kumukūʻai a me ke kūʻai aku, no ka mea, he hana nui ka logistic i nā huahana kila, no laila e uku ʻia ka ʻike.
E like me kāu e ʻike ai ma ka pakuhi ma lalo nei, i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala iho nei, ua neʻe ka palena nui a me ka loaʻa kālā o FRD me nā kumukūʻai kila (ʻo kāna pakuhi kumukūʻai ma ka pauku mua), e like me nā hui ʻē aʻe e hana ana i nā waiwai.
ʻO ka mea mua, he mau manawa liʻiliʻi loa ka wai o nā FRD. ʻO ka manawa pinepine, ʻo ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka leverage kahi pilikia no nā ʻoihana waiwai.
E like me ka hōʻike ʻana o ka pakuhi ma lalo nei, ʻaʻole e pakele ʻo FRD i kēia ʻoiaʻiʻo, a ke hoʻonui nei ka neʻe ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā i ka neʻe ʻana o ka ʻike kālā.
ʻO ka lua o ka manaʻo hoihoi, ʻo ka awelika o ka loaʻa kālā hana a FRD no ka manawa he $4.1 miliona. ʻO ka awelika o ka loaʻa kālā kālā a FRD no ka manawa he $2.8 miliona, a i ʻole 70% o ka loaʻa kālā hana. ʻO ka ʻokoʻa wale nō ma waena o ka loaʻa kālā hana a FRD ʻo ka ʻauhau loaʻa he 30%. ʻO ia hoʻi he kakaʻikahi loa ka ʻoihana kālā a i ʻole nā ​​mea ʻē aʻe, a ma kekahi ʻaoʻao e hōʻemi i ka leverage (ma kēia hihia kālā.)
ʻO ka mea hope loa, ʻaʻole i ʻokoʻa loa ka awelika depreciation a me ka amortization mai nā hoʻolimalima kālā i ka wā i uhi ʻia. Hāʻawi kēia iā mākou i ka hilinaʻi ʻaʻole i kuhi hewa ka ʻoihana i kāna mau hoʻolimalima kālā, a no laila e hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai no ka hoʻomaikaʻi ʻana i nā loaʻa ma o ka helu helu.
Hoʻomaopopo mākou i ka mālama kālā ʻana o nā kumulāʻau conservative a me ke kālā i mālama i ka waiwai o FRD i nā manawa paʻakikī no ka ʻoihana kila.
ʻO ke kumu o kēia loiloi ʻaʻole ia e wānana i ka mea e hiki mai ana i nā mea i ʻike ʻole ʻia e like me nā kumukūʻai kūʻai, nā uku ukupanee a me ke kālepa honua.
Eia naʻe, makemake mākou e kuhikuhi i ke kaiapuni a mākou e noho nei a me ke kaiapuni e ulu aʻe ana i nā makahiki he ʻumi e hiki mai ana ua hōʻike i nā hiʻohiʻona ʻokoʻa loa ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ke kūlana i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala.
I ko mākou hoʻomaopopo ʻana, ʻoiai mākou e kamaʻilio nei i nā mea i ʻike ʻole ʻia, ʻokoʻa loa nā mea ʻekolu.
ʻO ka mea mua, ʻaʻole ʻike ʻia ka neʻe ʻana o ka honua i ka hoʻohui ʻana o ke kālepa honua.
ʻO ka lua, ua haʻalele nā ​​waihona kikowaena i nā ʻoihana holomua i nā kulekele kālā hoʻonui a lākou i hoʻokō ai i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala. ʻAʻole maopopo mākou i ka hopena o nā kumukūʻai kūʻai.
ʻO ke kolu, a pili i nā mea ʻelua ʻē aʻe, ua hoʻomaka mua ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā ʻoihana holomua, a ʻaʻohe maopopo e pili ana i ka hoʻomau ʻana.
Eia hou, ʻaʻole kā mākou manaʻo e wānana i nā kumukūʻai kila i ka wā e hiki mai ana, akā e hōʻike i ka loli nui ʻana o ka macroeconomic i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i ke kūlana ma waena o 2009 a me 2020. ʻO ia hoʻi ʻaʻole hiki ke nānā ʻia nā FRD me ka manaʻo e hoʻihoʻi hou i nā kumukūʻai kūʻai waena a me ke koi o nā makahiki i hala.
Manaʻo mākou he mea koʻikoʻi nā hoʻololi ʻekolu no ka wā e hiki mai ana o FRD, kūʻokoʻa i nā loli o ke kumukūʻai a me ka nui i koi ʻia.
ʻO ka mea mua, ua wehe ʻo FRD i kahi keʻena hou no kāna mahele ʻoki coil ma Hinton, Texas. Wahi a ka hōʻike 10-Q o ka hui no ka hapaha ʻekolu o 2021 (Dec 2021), ua hoʻopau a hōʻiliʻili ʻia ka huina kālā he $ 21 miliona. ʻAʻole i hoʻolaha ka hui i ka wā e hoʻomaka ai ka hana.
E loaʻa i ka hale hou kekahi o nā mīkini ʻoki nui loa ma ka honua, e hoʻonui ana i ka hana wale nō akā ʻo ka laina huahana hoʻi i hāʻawi ʻia e ka hui.
Hoʻonui kēia hale hana hou i ka manaʻo like o ka hale mua a aia kahi kokoke loa i kahi mea hana nui e mālama i ka hana i kikoʻī loa no kēlā mea hana.
Ma ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka manawa hoʻemi o ka makahiki 15, ʻaneʻane pālua ka hale hana hou i nā lilo hoʻemi o ka FRD i kēia manawa i $3 miliona. He kumu maikaʻi ʻole kēia inā hoʻi nā kumukūʻai i nā pae i ʻike ʻia i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala.
ʻO ka lua, ua hoʻomaka ʻo FRD i nā hana hedging mai Iune 2020, e like me ka mea i hoʻolaha ʻia ma kāna hōʻike FY21 10-K. I ko mākou ʻike ʻana, hōʻike ʻo hedging i ka pilikia kālā nui i nā hana, e paʻakikī i ka wehewehe ʻana i nā ʻōlelo kālā, a koi i ka hoʻokele hoʻokele.
Hoʻohana ʻo FRD i ka helu pāpaʻi no kāna mau hana pā, e hiki ai iā ia ke hoʻopaneʻe i ka ʻike ʻana i nā loaʻa a me nā poho ma nā derivatives a hiki i ka hana paʻa, inā loaʻa. Loaʻa ka loaʻa ʻole o ka loaʻa kālā ma nā loaʻa kālā piha ʻē aʻe. ʻO ka hana maoli o ka pā i hana ʻia ma ka lā hoʻokahi ma ke kumu kūʻai wahi o $50, a laila hoʻololi ʻia ka loaʻa OCI i loaʻa kālā no ka makahiki ma ka hoʻohui ʻana i $50 i ke kūʻai.
E like me ka lōʻihi o kēlā me kēia hana pale i ka hana maoli, e hana maikaʻi nā mea a pau. I kēia hihia, ʻoi aku ka nui a i ʻole ka liʻiliʻi o nā loaʻa a me nā poho ma nā derivatives e nā loaʻa a me nā poho ma ke kālepa maoli.
Hoʻomaka nā pilikia i ka wā e hoʻopau ʻole ai nā ʻoihana i ka ʻoihana ʻaʻole e hiki mai. ke kumu kūʻai wahi, ʻaʻohe poho. Eia naʻe, inā pau ka ʻoihana i ke kūʻai aku i 5 coils ma ke kumukūʻai kiko, pono ia e ʻike i ka nalowale o nā ʻaelike i koe.
ʻO ka mea pōʻino, i loko o 18 mahina wale nō o ka hana paʻa ʻana, ua ʻike ʻo FRD i nā poho ma luna o ka paʻa ʻana o $10 miliona (e manaʻo ʻia he $7 miliona ma ka waiwai ʻauhau i hana ʻia). ua nui ke kālā i kēia makahiki a nalowale liʻiliʻi, ʻōlelo ʻia ʻo FRD ma hoʻokahi paukū.
Hoʻohana nā ʻoihana i ka pale e hoʻonui i ka pono a i kekahi manawa e loaʻa kālā ma ke kūʻai ʻana aku i ke kumu kūʻai ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi ke loaʻa ʻole ka huahana. Akā naʻe, ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou ʻaʻole pono ka pilikia hou a, e like me kā mākou i ʻike ai, hiki ke hana i nā poho nui.
A i ʻole, ʻoi aku ka nui o nā hana pale i ka wā e pono ai nā ʻoihana i ke kōkua ʻoi loa.
ʻO ka mea hope loa, no ke kālā ʻana i kāna paʻa, hoʻonui i nā pono waiwai a me ke kūkulu ʻana i kahi hale hana hou, ua kau inoa ʻo FRD i kahi hale hōʻaiʻē me JPMorgan Chase (JPM).
Ma Kekemapa 2021, he $15 miliona ko ka hui ma ka hale hana. pono e nana pono ia.
Ua haʻi mua mākou i kekahi o nā pilikia ma hope o nā hana FRD, akā makemake mākou e hoʻokomo pono iā lākou i kahi ʻāpana ʻokoʻa a kūkākūkā hou aku.
E like me kā mākou i ʻōlelo ai, ua hoʻohana ʻo FRD i ka leverage, nā kumukūʻai paʻa, i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala, akā ʻaʻole ia he manaʻo nui nā poho ma nā mākeke ʻino loa.
Ua ʻōlelo pū mākou ʻaʻohe ʻaiʻē ʻo FRD, ʻo ia hoʻi, ʻaʻohe leverage kālā ma ke ala e piʻi ai a i lalo. I kēia manawa, ua kau inoa ka ʻoihana i kahi hale hōʻaiʻē e pili ana i kāna mau waiwai wai. 000 i ka uku panee no kēlā me kēia $10 miliona i hōʻaiʻē hou ʻia. I ka piʻi ʻana o ka pākēneka SOFR ma 100 kumu kumu (1%) i kēlā me kēia makahiki, e uku ka FRD i $100,000 hou. ʻAi ʻo FRD i kēia manawa he $15 miliona, ʻo ia hoʻi ka uku ukupanee makahiki o $442,000, ʻaʻole i loaʻa i nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala.
ʻO ka hoʻohui ʻana i kēlā mau uku ʻelua, a me ka piʻi ʻana he 1% no ke koena o 2022, pono ka ʻoihana e hoʻonui i $2 miliona i ka loaʻa kālā ma mua o ka hoʻololi hou ʻana iā COVID.
A laila ua ʻōlelo mākou i ka pilikia o ka pale, he mea paʻakikī ke ana akā loaʻa ka hopena nui i ka wā e nāwaliwali loa nā ʻoihana. ʻO ka pilikia kūikawā o kahi ʻoihana e hilinaʻi nui ʻia i ka nui o nā ʻaelike e wehe ʻia i kēlā me kēia manawa a me ke ʻano o ka neʻe ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kila.
E pili ana i ka puhi kālā, ʻaʻole maikaʻi loa ka ʻike i loaʻa iā mākou mai ke kolu o ka hapaha o 2021 (Dec 2021).
Eia naʻe, ua hoʻonui pū ʻo FRD i kāna hoʻopukapuka kālā a me nā loaʻa kālā i loko o ka makahiki e like me ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai kila. Ma ka 3Q21, ua loaʻa i ka hui kahi moʻolelo $ 83 miliona ma ka waihona a me $ 26 miliona i nā loaʻa. , e loaʻa ana kēia i kahi kumukūʻai kālā nui, ma ka helu o kēia manawa he $ 2.2 miliona i kēlā me kēia makahiki. ʻO kēia kekahi o nā kumu nui e loiloi i ka wā e puka mai ai nā hopena hou i kekahi manawa o ʻApelila.
ʻO ka mea hope loa, ʻo FRD kahi ʻāpana liʻiliʻi i kālepa ʻia, me ka awelika o kēlā me kēia lā ma kahi o 5,000 mau ʻāpana. ʻO ke kumukūʻai pū kekahi he 3,5% ka noi / bid, i manaʻo ʻia he kiʻekiʻe.
I ko mākou manaʻo, ʻo nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala e hōʻike ana i kahi ʻano maikaʻi ʻole no nā mea kūʻai aku, ʻoi aku ka maikaʻi o ka ʻoihana kila US. I kēia hihia, ʻo ka hiki o FRD ke hoʻokele waiwai me ka awelika o ka loaʻa kālā he $2.8 miliona.
ʻOiaʻiʻo, ʻoiai e noʻonoʻo ana i nā pae kumukūʻai o nā makahiki he ʻumi i hala, ʻaʻole hiki iā mākou ke wānana i ka loaʻa kālā like no FRD ma muli o nā loli nui o ka hoʻopukapuka kālā a me nā hana pale.