E hāʻule ana nā kumukūʻai kila ma hope o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai ma Malaki ma hope o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o Russia iā Ukraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Ua hoʻi koke ka mākeke kila i nā pae mua o ke kaua ma Ukraine. ʻO ka nīnau nui i kēia manawa ʻaʻole inā e hāʻule nā ​​kumukūʻai, akā pehea ka wikiwiki a me kahi e hiki ai ke lalo.
Ma ka noʻonoʻo ʻana i ka kamaʻilio ʻana ma ka mākeke, ke kānalua nei kekahi e hāʻule ana nā kumukūʻai i lalo a i ʻole $ 1,000 o ke tona, ʻo ia ka mea e pili ana i ka pae ma hope o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o nā pūʻali Lūkini.
"ʻOi aku koʻu hopohopo e pili ana i kahi e kū ai ʻo ia? ʻAʻole wau e manaʻo e kū ʻo ia a hiki i - Abracadabra! - ʻaʻole e hoʻomaka ke kaua. ʻōlelo ka hale hana, "ʻAe, e hoʻolōʻihi mākou," wahi a ka luna kikowaena lawelawe.
Ua ʻae ke poʻo ʻelua o ke kikowaena lawelawe. "Ke inaina nei au e kamaʻilio e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa no ka mea he waihona kaʻu a makemake au i nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe," wahi āna. "Akā, manaʻo wau e hoʻi wikiwiki ana mākou i ke ala ma mua o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o Putin."
Wahi a kā mākou mea hana kumu kūʻai, ʻo ka manaʻo o kahi kumukūʻai $ 1,000 / t hot rolled coil (HRC) i ka waena o ʻApelila me he mea lā ʻaʻole paha i ka wā e kokoke ana nā kumukūʻai i $ 1,500/t. Eia kekahi, e hoʻomanaʻo i ka mahina ʻo Kepakemapa 2021, ua hōʻea nā kumukūʻai ma kahi o $1,955 no ka ton, akā ʻo ka piʻi ʻana i kahi kiʻekiʻe o Sepatemaba i hala aku nei he piʻi nui mai ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai i ʻike ʻole ʻia ma Malaki 2022. lani.
Ua kākau wau e pili ana i ke kila a me nā metala mai ka makahiki 2007. Hoʻi ka ʻikepili SMU i 2007. E like me ka mea a mākou i ʻike ai ma Malaki. ʻO kēia ka piʻi nui loa o nā kumukūʻai kila i nā makahiki he 15 i hala, a malia paha.
Akā i kēia manawa ʻaʻole paʻakikī ke noʻonoʻo i nā kumukūʻai wili wela ma lalo o $1,000/ton. Hoʻohui ʻia kahi pahu hou. Ua hāʻule nā ​​kumukūʻai metala ʻōpala i nā mahina i hala iho nei. Ke ulu nei ka hopohopo i ka hoʻonui ʻana - a me ka nui o ka uku paneʻe e hakakā iā ia - hiki ke alakaʻi i ka hoʻokele waiwai holoʻokoʻa.
Inā ʻoe e lawe mai nei i nā mea āu i kauoha ai i hoʻokahi mahina i hala aku nei, i ka wā i piʻi nui ai nā kumukūʻai wahi, a laila ʻo ka ʻike ʻana i ke kumu o kēia mau loli he mea hōʻoluʻolu.
"Ua loaʻa iā mākou kahi palena liʻiliʻi i ka ʻōwili wela a me kahi palena kūpono i ka ʻōwili anuanu a me ka uhi ʻana. I kēia manawa ke nalowale nei mākou i ke kālā ma ka ʻōwili wela a he liʻiliʻi kā mākou kālā ma ka ʻōwili anuanu a me ka uhi ʻana, "i ʻōlelo aku ai kahi luna lawelawe kikowaena i nā ʻoihana Steel. Hōʻano hou.
Kiʻi 1: ʻO nā manawa alakaʻi pōkole no ka pepa metala e hiki ai i nā wili ke mākaukau e kūkākūkā i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa. (Ke hōʻike ʻia nei nā kumukūʻai HRC ma nā kaola polū a me nā lā hoʻopuka ma nā kaola hina.)
Ma muli o ia mau ʻōlelo, ʻaʻole paha he mea kupanaha ʻo nā ʻike hou loa a SMU ʻo ia ka pessimistic loa a mākou i ʻike ai mai ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ke kaua. Hoʻemi ʻia ka manawa hoʻokō HRC (e nānā i ke Kiʻi 1). (Hiki iā ʻoe ke hana i kēia a me nā kiʻi like ʻole me ka hoʻohana ʻana i kā mākou mea hana uku pānaʻi. Pono ʻoe he lālā SMU. E komo a kipa: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
I ka nui o nā hoʻohālikelike mōʻaukala, he maʻamau ka manawa alakaʻi HRC ma kahi o 4 mau pule. Akā ʻoiai ua hoʻi ka manawa hoʻopuka i ka maʻamau, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai i hoʻohālikelike ʻia i nā kūlana i hala. No ka laʻana, inā ʻoe e nānā i hope i ʻAukake 2019, ma mua o ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka maʻi maʻi i ka mākeke, ua like ka manawa o ka lawe ʻana i kēia manawa, akā ʻo HRC he $ 585 no ka tonne.
Makemake nā hale hana hou e kūkākūkā i nā kumukūʻai haʻahaʻa ma muli o ka manawa pōkole. Ua haʻi mai nā mea pane iā mākou ua mākaukau ka 90% o nā mea kanu kūloko e noʻonoʻo i ka hiki ke hoʻohaʻahaʻa i nā kumukūʻai no nā huahana ʻōwili e huki i nā kauoha hou. Ua loli nui ke kūlana mai Malaki, i ka manawa kokoke i nā hale hana a pau i koi e hoʻonui i nā kumukūʻai (e nānā i ke Kiʻi 2).
ʻAʻole hiki ke hana ʻia i loko o kahi ʻūhā. Ke haʻi mai nei ka nui o nā kikowaena lawelawe a me nā mea hana iā mākou e ʻimi nei lākou e hōʻemi i ka waihona, kahi ʻano i wikiwiki i nā pule i hala aku nei (e ʻike i ke Kiʻi 3).
ʻAʻole nā ​​hale hana wale nō e ʻoki ana i nā kumukūʻai. Pela no na kikowaena lawelawe. ʻO kēia kahi hoʻololi ʻē aʻe mai ke ʻano o Malaki-ʻApelila, i ka wā i hoʻokiʻekiʻe ikaika ai nā kikowaena lawelawe e like me nā hale hana.
ʻIke ʻia nā hōʻike like ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe. Ua hōʻike pū ʻia aia lākou ma ka ʻaoʻao. ʻOi aku ka nui o nā poʻe i manaʻo hopohopo e pili ana i kā lākou mau mea e hiki mai ana. Akā, ua loaʻa iā ʻoe ka manaʻo.
ʻAʻole mākou i loko o ka mākeke o ka mea kūʻai aku a mākou i komo ai no ka hapa nui o Malaki a me ʻApelila. Akā, ua hoʻi mākou i ka mākeke o ka mea kūʻai aku i ka hoʻomaka o ka makahiki, kahi i hāpai ai ke kaua no ka manawa pōkole i nā hopohopo e pili ana i ka loaʻa ʻana o nā kumu waiwai nui e like me ka hao puaʻa.
Hōʻike nā hualoaʻa noiʻi hou loa e manaʻo mau ana nā kānaka e hāʻule nā ​​kumukūʻai, ma ka liʻiliʻi loa i ka wā pōkole (e nānā i ka pakuhi 4). Hiki iā lākou ke hoʻi hou i ka hapahā ʻehā?
ʻO ka mea mua, ʻo ka mākeke bear: ʻAʻole wau makemake e kamaʻilio e pili ana i ke kauwela o 2008. ʻAʻole wau e manaʻo e lawe maʻalahi ʻia ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i kēlā manawa, e like me kekahi manawa. Akā, he mea hōʻole inā ʻaʻole wau i ʻae i ka hopohopo o kekahi poʻe mea kūʻai aku e pili ana i ka like loa ma waena o Iune 2008 a me Iune 2022.
Hoʻomanaʻo kekahi i ka mea kanu, ka mea i hōʻoiaʻiʻo ua pono nā mea a pau. He koi maikaʻi kēlā, e like me ka backlog ma nā mākeke like ʻole a lākou e lawelawe ai a hiki i ka nalowale ʻana o kēlā mau backlogs kokoke i ka pō. Ua lohe lākou i nā pane a nā luna ʻoihana kila i kamaʻāina loa i ka ʻōlelo a ka makahiki 2008.
Kiʻi 2. Ke koi nei nā hale wili kila i ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai kila ma Malaki. I ka mahina o Iune, ua maʻalahi lākou i kā lākou kūkākūkā e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai kila.
ʻAʻole wau mākaukau e nānā pono i nā mea like o ka makahiki 2008. Ke ʻike ʻia nei ke kūpaʻa nei nā kumukūʻai ma Asia, a ʻaʻole hoʻokūkū nui nā makana i hoʻokomo ʻia i ke kila wela ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai kūloko. Aia kahi ʻokoʻa nui ma waena o nā kumukūʻai i lawe ʻia mai a me nā kumu kūʻai kūloko no ke kila-wili a i uhi ʻia. Akā ma laila, e like me kā mākou hoʻomaopopo ʻana, ke emi koke nei ka ʻāpana.
"Inā he mea kūʻai aku ʻoe, e ʻōlelo ʻoe:" E kali, no ke aha wau e kūʻai nei i nā imports (HRC)? E piʻi ana nā kumukūʻai kūloko i $50 pākēneka. ʻAʻole maopopo iaʻu i ka wā e paʻi ai lākou i $50 e pau. . No laila, he aha ke kumukūʻai hoʻokomo maikaʻi?" Ua haʻi mai kekahi luna hale hana iaʻu.
E hoʻomanaʻo e pili pinepine ka US i ka mākeke honua. I ke kauwela o 2020, ua hāʻule mākou ma lalo o nā kumukūʻai ʻĀsia no ke kila wela. E hoomanao i $440/t? A laila no nā makahiki ʻelua e hiki mai ana, ʻaʻole ia i hele ma kahi ʻē.
Ke hoʻomanaʻo nei hoʻi au i kahi ʻōlelo i haʻi ʻia mai iaʻu e ka mea loiloi ʻoihana kiʻekiʻe: "Ke hoʻolei nā mea a pau i ke kāwele i ka ʻoihana kila, hoʻi mai ia."
E mālama ʻia ʻo SMU Steel Summit, ʻo ia ka hui nui makahiki kila ma ʻAmelika ʻAmelika, ʻAukake 22-24 ma Georgia International Convention Center ma Atlanta. Aia wau i laila. Manaʻo mākou ma kahi o 1,200 mau mea hoʻoholo i ka pā a me ka ʻoihana pā e hele pū. Ua kūʻai ʻia kekahi mau hōkele kokoke.
E like me kaʻu i ʻōlelo ai i ka mahina i hala aku nei, inā kānalua ʻoe, e noʻonoʻo e like me kēia: Hiki iā ʻoe ke hoʻonohonoho i kahi hālāwai mea kūʻai aku ʻeono manawa, a i ʻole hiki iā ʻoe ke hālāwai me lākou i hoʻokahi manawa ma Atlanta. He paʻakikī ke paʻakikī i ka logistic. Hiki iā ʻoe ke lawe i ka tram mai ke kahua mokulele a i ke kahua hālāwai kūkā a me nā hōkele kokoke. Hiki iā ʻoe ke komo a i waho me ka hopohopo ʻole e pili ana i ka hoʻolimalima ʻana i kaʻa a i ʻole ka hoʻokele ʻana i nā kaʻa.
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