Mitengo yesimbi inoita kunge iri kudonha mushure mekukwira kwemitengo muna Kurume zvichitevera kupinda kweRussia muUkraine. betoon/iStock/Getty Images
Musika wesimbi wakakurumidza kudzokera kune pre-war level muUkraine. Mubvunzo mukuru ikozvino hausi wekuti mitengo ichadonha, asi nekukurumidza sei uye papi pazasi.
Tichitarisa nehurukuro pamusika, vamwe vanokahadzika kuti mitengo ichadonha kusvika kana pasi pemadhora zviuru gumi patani, iyo inenge nhanho mushure mekupinda kwakazara kwemauto eRussia.
"Ndiri kunyanya kunetseka kuti achamira kupi? Handifungi kuti achamira kusvika - Abracadabra! - hondo haisati yatanga." fekitari inoti, "Zvakanaka, tichanonoka," maneja wepaservice centre akadaro.
Mukuru wechipiri wenzvimbo yebasa akabvuma. “Ndinovenga kutaura nezvemitengo yakaderera nekuti ndine zvinhu uye ndinoda mitengo yakakwira,” akadaro. "Asi ndinofunga tiri kukurumidza kudzoka mugwara Putin asati apinda."
Zvinoenderana nemidziyo yedu yemitengo, tarisiro yemutengo we $ 1,000 / t inopisa coil (HRC) pakati paKubvumbi inoita seisingaite apo mitengo yaive pedyo ne1,500/t. Uyewo, yeuka kuti muna September 2021, mitengo yakasvika madhora anenge 1,955 patani, asi kukwira kwepamusoro-soro kwegore raSeptember idanho guru kubva pamutengo usina kumboitika watakaona muna March 2022. Nzira yakareba, apo mitengo yekoil inopisa yakawedzera ne $ 435 / t kusvika ku $ 31. denga.
Ndanga ndichinyora nezvesimbi nesimbi kubvira 2007. SMU data inodzokera ku2007. Zvakafanana nezvatakaona muna March. Uku ndiko kuwedzera kukuru kwemitengo yesimbi mumakore gumi nemashanu apfuura, uye zvichida zvachose.
Asi ikozvino hazvina kuoma kufungidzira inopisa yakakungurutswa mitengo yecoil iri kana pazasi $1,000/ton. Chigadziko chitsva chinowedzerwa. Mitengo yesimbi yezvikara yakadonha mumwedzi ichangopfuura. Pari zvino pave nekutyira kuti inflation - pamwe nemitengo yakakwira yekuirwisa - inogona kukonzera kudzikira kwehupfumi hwese.
Kana iwe uri kuunza zvinhu izvozvi zvawakaodha mwedzi wapfuura, apo mitengo yenzvimbo yakakwira zvakanyanya, saka kuziva kuti sei kuchinja uku kuchiitika inyaradzo inotyisa.
"Takanga tine muganho mudiki mukukungurutswa kunopisa uye mupendero wakanaka mukukunguruka nekuputira. Iye zvino tave kurasikirwa nemari pakudziya kupisa uye isu tine mari shoma painotonhora yekukungurusa nekupfeka," mumwe mukuru wepasevhisi akaudza Steel Businesses nguva pfupi yadarika. Update."
Mufananidzo 1: Nguva pfupi dzekutungamira kwepepa resimbi inobvumira zvigayo kuti zvigadzirire kutaurirana mitengo yakaderera. (Mitengo yeHRC inoratidzwa mumabhawa ebhuruu uye mazuva ekutumira mumabhawa egrey.)
Tichifunga nezvemashoko akadai, pamwe hazvishamisi kuti zvichangobva kuwanikwa zveSMU ndizvo zvatakaona kubva pakutanga kwehondo. HRC nguva yekuuraya yakaderedzwa (ona Mufananidzo 1). (Unogona kugadzira magirafu aya nemamwe akafanana uchishandisa chishandiso chedu chemitengo. Unofanira kunge uri nhengo yeSMU. Pinda woshanya: www.steelmarketupdate.com/dynamic-pricing-graph/interactive-pricing-tool-members.)
Mukufananidza kwakawanda kwenhoroondo, nguva yekutungamira yeHRC yemavhiki mana yakaenzana. Asi nepo nguva dzekutumira dzadzokera kune zvakajairika, mitengo ichiri yakakwira zvakanyanya kana ichienzaniswa neyakapfuura zviyero. Semuenzaniso, kana ukatarisa kumashure muna Nyamavhuvhu 2019, denda risati rakanganisa musika, nguva dzekutumira dzaive dzakafanana nezvino, asi HRC yaive $585 patani.
Mamwe mafekitari arikuda kutaurirana nezvemitengo yakaderera nekuda kwenguva pfupi yekutumira. Vakapindura vakatiudza kuti ingangoita 90% yemiti yemumba yakagadzirira kufunga nezve mukana wekudzikisa mitengo yezvinhu zvakatenderedzwa kukwezva maodha matsva. Mamiriro ezvinhu akachinja zvakanyanya kubva munaKurume, apo anenge ese mafekitori akaomerera pakukwidza mitengo (ona Mufananidzo 2).
Hazviitike pasina chinhu. Nhamba iri kukura yenzvimbo dzebasa nevagadziri vari kutiudza kuti vari kutsvaga kudzikisa zvigadzirwa, maitiro akawedzera mumavhiki apfuura (ona Mufananidzo 3).
Haasi mafekitari chete ari kuderedza mitengo. Zvimwe chetezvo zvinoenda kunzvimbo dzebasa. Uku ndiko kumwe kudzoserwa kwakasimba kubva kuKurume-Kubvumbi maitiro, apo nzvimbo dzebasa dzakaita semafekitori dzakasimudza mitengo zvine hukasha.
Mishumo yakafanana inooneka kune dzimwe nzvimbo. Zvakanziwo vaive padivi. Vanhu vakawanda vanoramba vasina tariro nezveramangwana ravo. Asi une pfungwa.
Isu hatisisiri mumusika wevatengesi watakanga tiri kwenguva zhinji yaKurume naKubvumbi. Pane kudaro, takadzokera kumusika wemutengi pakutanga kwegore, uko hondo yakasimudza kunetseka pamusoro pekuwanikwa kwezvinhu zvakakosha zvakadai sesimbi yenguruve.
Mhedzisiro yedu yazvino yeongororo inoratidza kuti vanhu vanoramba vachitarisira mitengo kudonha, zvirinani munguva pfupi (ona Chati 4). Vachakwanisa kupora muchikamu chechina here?
Kutanga, misika yebheya: Handidi kutaura nezvezhizha ra2008. Handifungi kuti kuenzanisa nenguva iyoyo kunofanira kutorwa zvishoma, sezvavanomboita dzimwe nguva. Asi zvingave zvisizvo kana ndikasabvuma kuti vamwe vatori vechikamu pamusika vainetsekana nekunyanya kufanana pakati paChikumi 2008 naChikumi 2022.
Vamwe vakayeuka chirimwa chacho, icho chakavimbisa kuti zvinhu zvose zvakanga zvakarongeka. Ndiko kudiwa kwakanaka, sezvakaita kumashure mumisika yakasiyana-siyana yavanoshandira kudzamara izvo zvakasaririra zvanyangarika husiku. Vakanzwa mhinduro dzevakuru veindasitiri yesimbi vese vanoziva nezve rhetoric ye2008.
Mufananidzo 2. Zvigayo zvesimbi zvinosimbirira pakukwira kwemitengo yesimbi muna March. Kubva munaJune, vave vachinyanya kushanduka muhurukuro dzavo pamusoro pemitengo yesimbi.
Handina kugadzirira kunyatsotarisa pane zvakafanana zve 2008. Mitengo muAsia inoratidzika kunge yakagadzikana, uye inopisa-yakakungurutswa yesimbi inotengeswa inopihwa haina kukwikwidza zvakanyanya kupihwa mwero wekuderera kwemutengo wepamba. Pane mukaha mukuru pakati pemitengo yekunze neyepamba yesimbi inotonhora yakakungurutswa uye yakavharwa. Asi ipapo, sezvatinonzwisisa, mukaha wacho uri kukurumidza kupera.
“Dai wanga uri mutengi, waiti: “Mira, sei ndava kutenga zvinhu kunze kwenyika (HRC)? Mitengo yemumba ichasvika pamadhora makumi mashanu muzana. I'm not sure kuti pavacharova $50 vachamira. . Saka, ndeupi mutengo wakanaka kubva kunze kwenyika?" mumwe maneja wefekitari akandiudza.
Rangarira kuti iyo US inoda kusungirirwa kumusika wepasi rose zvakare uye zvakare. Muzhizha ra2020, takawira pasi pemitengo yeAsia yesimbi inopisa-yakatenderedzwa. Rangarira $440/t? Zvino kwemakore maviri akatevera hapana kwazvakaenda.
Ndinoyeukawo mashoko akataurwa nomumwe muongorori mukuru weindasitiri yesimbi akambondiudza kuti: “Kana munhu wose akakanda tauro muindasitiri yesimbi, kazhinji inodzoka.”
SMU Steel Summit, musangano mukuru wesimbi wepagore muNorth America, uchaitwa Nyamavhuvhu 22-24 kuGeorgia International Convention Center muAtlanta. Ndichange ndiripo. Isu tinotarisira vanosvika chiuru nemazana maviri vanoita sarudzo muindasitiri yendiro neplate kuti vapindewo. Mamwe mahotera ari pedyo atengeswa.
Sezvandakataura mwedzi wapera, kana usiri kufunga, zvifunge nenzira iyi: Unogona kuronga musangano wemutengi katanhatu, kana kuti unogona kusangana navo kamwe muAtlanta. Iyo logistics yakaoma kurova. Iwe unogona kutora tram kubva kuairport kuenda kunzvimbo yemusangano uye mahotera ari pedyo. Unogona kupinda nekubuda usinganetseki nekuhaya mota kana kufamba netraffic.
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